Buy now or wait? How to read a price history chart

Every "should I buy now?" question is answerable with a price history chart and thirty seconds of attention. This guide is the thirty seconds, written down. No fortune-telling — just four questions, asked in order.

Question 1: where is the price now, relative to its floor?

Find the lowest point ever recorded — the historical low. If today's price matches it, the timing question is closed: it does not get better than the floor, and floors repeat rarely. If today's price is above the floor, continue.

Question 2: how often does it approach the floor?

Count the dips. A game that touches its low every six weeks will do it again — wait. A game that has hit its low once in two years may not repeat it this year — a near-floor price is effectively a floor price.

Question 3: is the baseline itself moving?

Look at the tops between sales, not just the dips. An aging title's full price often steps down permanently — which means every future sale cuts from a lower base. If the baseline fell recently, patience compounds twice.

Question 4: is there a reason the pattern breaks?

DLC launches, sequel announcements and anniversary events all bend price history. A DLC usually drags the base game to a new floor; a sequel announcement sometimes does the opposite for a while. The chart shows the past — the calendar hints at the exceptions.

Here's the method applied live. This embed runs the same four checks against current data and history:

The chart already knows. Most buying mistakes come from not looking.

One habit change captures most of the value: never evaluate a discount by its percentage, always by its position on the history chart. Percentages are the store talking; the chart is the market talking.